Before you read this column, pull out your company’s organizational chart. Put a G next to individuals who always seems to get along. Next, put an S next to those who generally speak their minds, regardless of the issue or its popularity, and a P to denote those who pick their battles, only speaking their minds on a few issues.

In the best companies the Ps dominate (they’re P-rated), because leaders know how to focus their energy on what’s important. I’d rank S-rated companies second, because issues at least get raised and thrashed out, even if the process is more raucous than it needs to be. S-rated companies can be a lot of fun, once you get used to it.

G-rated companies rank last, because their leaders avoid any discussion that might cause hurt feelings or cause conflict. G-rated companies are almost guaranteed to slide into mediocrity, because the only programs put into action are the safe ones. The Gs dominate most American companies today. Getting along is their core competency.

How do companies get to be G-rated? Lots of factors contribute, but one of the most pernicious is the so-called 360-degree feedback program.

360-degree feedback programs seemed like such a good idea. Instead of being subjected to their manager’s narrow perspective, employees get reviewed by peers and “internal customers” (ugh!) as well, so they get a more complete picture of their performance, or so says the theory.

It’s a good theory. Sadly, it suffers from both bad execution and the law of unintended consequences.

Bad execution? Yes, it’s frequently bad, and sometimes execrable. I’ve seen the forms used by several companies; many asked only social questions: “Was the employee pleasant to work with?” “Does the employee work well in a team environment?” “Does the employee show a customer-service attitude?”

I once asked the coordinator of a company’s 360-degree feedback program why her form had no questions about job performance. Her non-verbal response was as though I’d noisily eructated. Her verbal answer? “We think that will come through from the questions we did ask.”

Even when done well, the unintended consequences of 360-degree feedback will usually outweigh the intended ones. Performance appraisals determine salary increases, bonuses and promotions, and have an impact on self-esteem as well. Faced with 360-degree feedback programs, employees tend to act so as to generate good feedback, which means these programs quickly degenerate into popularity contests. Who’s going to take an unpopular position with a 360-degree feedback program in place? It’s better to get along.

Managers often use 360-degree feedback as an excuse to avoid their own leadership responsibilities. What was supposed to be 360-degree feedback becomes something less, because now the manager’s perspective is missing. Managers are supposed to set goals and hold employees accountable, so when their perspective is missing, so is accountability. Heck — the people providing all the feedback don’t even know what goals and priorities the manager established, so it’s easy for feedback givers to become confused about where a given problem begins.

360-degree feedback isn’t worthless. It can be a useful source of information for managers, so long as the manager applies good judgment in evaluating the results.

But that’s about all it’s good for.

Unless you want to work in a company where everyone concentrates on just getting along.

I have good news, great news, bad news, and good news.

The American Cocoa Research Institute (ACRI) recently reported research on (what else?) the health benefits of cocoa and chocolate.

The good news: The ACRI exists. Something this important deserves a research institute. The great news is that cocoa and chocolate are chock-full of flavonoids. Flavonoids are naturally occurring anti-oxidents, which means they help clean up nasty stuff inside you. According to the ACRI’s research, the flavonoids in cocoa and chocolate are more potent than those in red wine, and in fact are more potent than Vitamin C.

While the current marketplace for flavonoid detectors is only $10 million annually, the Froschbosch Group predicts that by 2005, it will grow to over $2 billion. This prediction is neither more nor less reliable than any of the other triple-digit-growth-rate market predictions you read about every week in this and other IT industry publications.

Have you ever taken a close look at these puppies? They’re all identical. They’re exponential growth curves — not one is S-shaped, none have plateaus, interruptions, or inflection points in their smooth takeoffs to glory. They all start with sales statistically indistinguishable from zero, and end a zillion times bigger. Add together a complete set and the 2005 total is 37 times the current US gross national product.

That’s a lot of economic growth … which, if it meant anything, would be great news.

Sadly, it doesn’t. That’s the bad news. These market forecasts are almost perfectly unreliable.

The statistics themselves are fine. I’m confident that the samples are big enough, stratified enough, stationary enough, and unbiased enough, and the computations are handled with precision. But they’re based on surveys.

So. The Froschbosch Group calls a CIO and asks, “Are you currently using XML to define workflow metadata?” The CIO answers that he is not with confidence.

“Are you actively investigating its potential?” The CIO doesn’t want to look like an incompetent bowb, so “Yes,” he responds, with no real understanding of what workflow metadata is.

“Will it be in production by 2002?” The CIO just said his organization is actively investigating this mystery cure, and two years is a long time. “Yes.” Heck, for all he knows, he will.

But probably, he won’t. He hasn’t even started the internal selling needed to get funding approved. In the unlikely event that he sells it and the business buys it, about three of every four IT projects fails, which means XML-based workflow metadata never will go into production in his company.

Okay, let’s give our survey respondent a break. Maybe the question is about the future of object/relational databases, and the CIO understands the subject. Every RDBM vendor has announced object/relational extensions, and his policy is to stay current on releases. Will he have object/relational database technology in production by 2003? “Yes,” he answers, and the survey company announces exponential growth for the object/relational marketplace.

The bad news is that most of these market forecasts don’t mean very much. What’s the good news?

The good news is that none of them matter to you. Amazing market growth doesn’t mean a technology is important to you, any more than a more modest market growth rate means it’s not.

All that matters is whether your business can benefit from a technology. No growth curve can tell you that. Market growth matters only to venture capitalists and Wall Street analysts, not CIOs and CTOs.