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KJR Year 20 predictions

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I launched InfoWorld’s IS Survival Guide — KJR’s direct forebear — in 1996. Back then I had four goals:

1. Every column had to have something original to say, or at least an original perspective.

2. It couldn’t be dull. After all, if I put readers to sleep they wouldn’t get anything out of it. Also, friends shouldn’t bore friends to tears.

3. Speaking of getting something out of it, every column should contain useful and practical ideas readers could use as soon as they finished reading.

4. I had to last at least one year without running out of material.

Nineteen years later it’s safe to say I at least achieved goal #4. How well the IS Survival Guide/KJR achieved the other three is for you to judge. Meanwhile, goal #4 is now to make it through an even 20 without violating the first three goals too badly. After that? Let’s get through year 20 first.

Which leads to asking a favor.

Writing a weekly column like this, where the primary distribution is email, is a lot like giving a webinar. There’s no immediate feedback that lets me know how I’m doing. Except for your posted comments and emails, it’s like talking to an empty room.

That’s the favor. I’m going to write at least one more year of these weekly mumblings. I’d appreciate your taking a bit of time to let me know if you continue to find it useful. Thanks.

* * *

There’s something of a pundit-class tradition, namely, to use the beginning of a new year as an opportunity to predict what will happen during the next twelve months.

I tried this a couple of times before deciding to leave prognostication to others. Not that their forecasts were more accurate than mine. But forecasting turned out to have three unfortunate consequences:

  • It violates goal #3, because it’s a rare prediction that provides any useful guidance, even when it turns out to have been correct.
  • It expands. Every year, tracking the progress of old predictions, and adding new ones took more and more space. I could see a time when making new forecasts and tracking old ones would expand to occupy the entire calendar … sort of like the holiday shopping season.
  • It entrenches. When a forecast doesn’t play out, ego drives a pundit to solemnly declare that whatever was supposed to happen is just taking a bit longer than expected. The possibility that your friendly pundit might have simply been wrong? Unimaginable.

So no predictions for 2015.

Okay I lied. Here are three, issued with the standard KJR Warranty — if they don’t work out, gee, that is too bad.

Prediction #1: Every prediction that takes the form “In x years there will be two types of company — those that did y and those that are out of business,” will prove to be wrong.

In business, there are no panaceas and no pandemics. Good consultants are consistently annoying when it comes to their (our?) answering every question, “It depends.” It might be annoying, but it’s almost always the best answer.

Prediction #2: Every prediction that “x technology will completely replace y technology in z years” will also prove to be wrong. For heaven’s sake, some companies have mission-critical systems that rely on IMS. No matter how obsolete a technology is, the last holdout will take a devil of a long time to dump it.

Prediction #3: In 2015, somewhere in the industry press, you’ll read an article that says, “CIOs should be business people, not technology people.”

I predict this with the same confidence with which I forecast that sometime next year, unless you live in, for example, Death Valley, it will rain.

Forecasting the reappearance of the CIOs-must-be-business-people article is entirely parallel. I say “the article” because I’m pretty sure there’s just one. It appears, lasts just long enough to remind everyone of its existence, and vanishes again, only to be resurrected again when some IT pundit has a space to fill and nothing original to say.

And every time it reappears it’s just as profoundly stupid as it was in every previous incarnation.

I mean … I mean … I mean if an article appeared suggesting CFOs should be business people, not finance people; CMOs should be business people, not marketing people; or COOs should be business people, not operations people; would anyone take such utterly nonsensical false dichotomies seriously?

You won’t read that here.

Welcome to year 20 of Keep the Joint Running. Let me know whether what you do read here is useful.

Comments (68)

  • I have over a dozen of these I keep for reference through time. And I frequently forward the email. Please keep them coming.

    If you’re looking for material, think about leadership. You have written some good articles in the past on the subject and more is almost always better.

  • I find the column useful and entertaining. I may not always agree with the items in the pieces but that is not a problem. I have had good discussions about the items in question. I appreciate your ability to put forth something like this on a continual basis. Please keep it up.
    “When all is said and done, more is said than done”.

  • I find your column extremely interesting and useful, and look forward to each new one.

  • I’ve been reading your columns since the beginning. They are as relevant and insightful now as they were way back when. Keep it up!

  • Long time reader, first time commentator. I find your column to be very interesting and useful. It is one of the few emails I look forward to each week. Please continue.

  • Bob- Like several others, I have been reading your column since the beginning and have received significant benefit from it — great ideas, great humor (and an even greater appreciation for the English language than I had before I started!). In addition, your books have been very helpful (and I have given several to my clients). I look forward to more years of reading and learning!

  • Bob,
    I’ve been a reader for a long time and have shared many articles with upper management.
    Please keep them coming!

  • Bob,
    I have been reading your columns for the last 10 years. Every year, you write 3-5 differenet columns that have a direct impact on what we are working on for that year. Please keep the columns coming!

  • friends shouldn’t bore friends to tears.

    Aww… if you can’t bore your friends to tears? Who can you bore? Oh wiat, your employees. Never mind! 🙂

    Some predictions, if accurate, could be very useful for IS – like saying that employees using their own devices and software is going to grow; don’t try to stop it or co-opt it – be sure to incorporate policies to support that right away.

    Reminding CFO’s and CMO’s that they are business people and not finance or marketing is probably a good reminder too. Marketing loves to market products that don’t (won’t?) exist and I’ve met so many finance people who thing the org exists to balance their sheets.

    For learning if people find your articles useful you can always look at your email subscription list. Tho I suppose there are folks who trash it rather than unsubscribe. As someone who writes creatively and posts to an unknown audience (relying on comments for feedback), I can certainly sympathize with your desire to hear directly!

  • I get a lot of industry emails sent to me on a regular basis. This is the only one that I will ALWAYS read. I keep a file where I keep a copy the columns that have the most relevance. There is no other columnist that I read for whom I keep a file of old columns (I delete your picture before saving, however. There is no value in being too cultish about this.) Occasionally I send articles to people who are not in the IT industry because your observation is relevant to so many phases of life.)

    • I agree with Rick. I’ve also kept a file of all your old columns for many years. I’m not really in the IT business, I’m just interested in reading about it but even when you expound on something I have absolutely no “work” interest in (agile programming for instance), I find the general principles of your views very enlightening.

      I would miss your weekly column if it was to no longer be published so I wish you many more years of blogging.

      BTW, people should also get The Moral History of Lime Daiquiris which is a very good read.

  • I continue to find your column useful. Thank for for continuing to talk to the ’empty room’.

    In this article, I learned that many organizations still rely on the obsolete IMS technology. I’m not familiar with IMS, so I went to the interwebs for a definitino, and found dozens of meanings for this TLA. (see http://www.acronymfinder.com/IMS.html for many examples). To which one were you referring? Just curious . . .

    • IBM’s old Information Management System – a hierarchical DBMS that preceded relational technology. Sorry – should have been more clear.

  • Dear Bob,

    Your columns rock.

    My most common reaction is, “That’s how I see it too, I just wish I had the mental clarity and verbal skills to articulate it so clearly.” Second most common reaction is, “I never thought of it that way. I can see how that applies in my own work. I’ll have to keep it in mind.” And third, “HAH HAH HAH HAH!” — which is usually a good thing.

    Thanks so much for doing what you do. I very much value your posts.

  • Bob:
    I gave notice yesterday. It’s not because the SeaHawks lost, or because 60 days notice leads to April Fools day. I’ve been planning to change careers to move in a more positive direction for years. Your columns are a ray of sanity that has helped lead me to the belief that I can, on my own, have a business structure that makes sense to me, is moral and fair to others, and still successful. I count on your column continuing to help me not go astray. Keep up the good work! Remember, your brain uses 30% of the calories your body consumes, so all that mental activity is really good for you.
    Thanks for all your thought energy!
    Tim

    • Tim … I sure hope your business works out, because if you’re giving me credit for its launch …

      Remember, the formula for success = a*Concept + b*Execution + c*luck, and nobody ever really knows the relative sizes of a, b, and c. So best of luck with the new business.

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