You’re a total loss for your employer.

I’m psychic. I sense your thoughts. Without ever having met you, I know this fact: you are, in fact, a total loss.

Okay, I cheated. I don’t have to know anything about you, your work habits, your productivity or your employer’s SIC code. All I have to know are a few basics from the Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), the rule book by which all accountants live.

When a company buys a computer, the accountants debit cash and credit tangible assets. The balance sheet doesn’t change at all. One kind of asset, money, has simply changed into another kind of asset, a computer.

When a company pays your salary, on the other hand, the accountants debit cash and credit expenses. Assets go down and expenses go up. You appear on the Loss side of the Profit and Loss statement.

Don’t blame your employer. Don’t blame the accountants. If you have to blame anyone, blame Pacioli, the Italian who invented modern accounting several hundred years ago.

After a brief flirtation with less tangible forms of management, much of American industry seems to have moved back to managing by the numbers. This has its good side, because companies really do have to turn a profit or they stop being employers except to attorneys specializing in Chapter 11 proceedings.

It has, of course, its downsize … uh, downside … well, I guess I was right the first time.

Accounting systems are an important tool for managing an organization, just as a hammer is an important tool in debugging a computer program (it may not be effective, but it can be very satisfying). Well-run organizations use their accounting systems to keep score. I grew up as a Chicago Cubs fan, so I know what happens when nobody really cares about the score. You have fun, but you never go to the World Series.

Accounting systems have two big drawbacks as guides for making critical strategic decisions. The first is pretty simple: they’re the map, not the country.

Everyone knows the map is not the country. This cliche points out an obvious characteristic of maps: they leave information out. If they didn’t, they wouldn’t be maps – they’d be countries.

Accounting systems leave out lots of information. They don’t track employee skills. They have nothing to say about customer loyalty. They’re mute on the quality of the latest advertising campaign, although they can report its cost to the penny.

Managing an organization using only the numbers generally leads to a lack of investment, because many critical investments, like employee training, preventive maintenance, and research and development (and yes, if you manage IS you need to fund some research and development) go by the wayside, victims of accounting’s lack of descriptive power.

Accounting systems have a second deficiency, too: they have no ability to reveal causal relationships. Preventive maintenance may lead to lower repair bills. You’ll never demonstrate this on a Profit-and-Loss Statement. Employee training may lead to more effective workers. Since the chart of accounts has no entry for employee effectiveness, the gains lack visibility.

Your new router may have forestalled a major outage. It doesn’t matter – your accounting system can’t book the value of events that never happened.

The moral of this little story: manage to the numbers, but never manage by the numbers.

Internet Update

In the Internet Collapse vs Free Enterprise match, the score is one to one. Bob Metcalfe gets a point from Sprint, which has started to kick some IP addresses off its network during periods of peak load. It beats collapse, I guess, but somehow, monitoring the on-ramp of a freeway, kicking off all the Fords doesn’t seem like brilliant engineering.
My point comes from MCI, which has announced a massive upgrade because it expects larger profits from the increased capacity.

The consensus of the InfoWorld Electric Forum on the subject (www.infoworld.com): traffic jams and outages yes, complete collapse no.

Bob Metcalfe has been predicting the imminent collapse of the Internet in these pages. Since your employer looks to you for technical expertise and advice, and since Dr. Metcalfe is a Recognized Industry Pundit (RIP), you’re probably worried about having recommended building that big Web site.
I’ve decided to offer a different perspective on the problem so you can trot out a second RIP to counter the effects of the first. (Also, if Dr. Metcalfe and I quibble in print you get to gripe about the incestuous nature of the press in Ed Foster’s gripe line, post items in our Forums on InfoWorld Electric (www.infoworld.com) and otherwise feed the liberal media conspiracy.)

Anyhow …the Internet scares people. Commonly described as an anarchic agglomeration of unplanned interconnections, it makes no sense to those who believe central planning is the key to quality.

Many of those same people, Dr. Metcalfe included, also say they believe in the power of laissez-faire capitalist economics. In other words, they believe in the power of Adam Smith’s “invisible hand” that uses market forces to regulate the interplay of independent agents.

From the perspective of general systems theory, this is nothing more than the use of negative feedback loops to create stable systems. (If you’re not familiar with the concept, it just means that inputs listen to outputs, adjusting themselves when the output drifts off course.)

Laissez-faire capitalism says shortages lead to higher prices which reduce demand, eliminating the shortage. Higher prices motivate an increase in production capacity, increasing supply which then reduces price, increasing demand. The result: A self-regulating system with no need for external controls.

Why does Dr. Metcalfe, who believes in this kind of self-regulation for the economy, not believe it will work for the Internet? After all, money comes in along with increased demand. Increased demand leads to supply shortages (poor response time). These shortages certainly can result in higher prices. They also can result in more companies getting into the business, and in existing Internet providers increasing the bandwidth they make available. It’s a pretty basic example of the very same kind of self-regulated economic system most cherished by the all-government-regulation-is-bad crowd.

This doesn’t mean the Internet won’t catastrophically fail this year. Laissez-faire capitalism breaks down in several different circumstances. Here are two:

Any time individuals or organizations compete for a common resource, market forces just plain don’t work.

This is called “First pigs to the trough.” It’s also known as the tragedy of the commons. In merry olde Englande, farmers grazed their cattle on public grazing land – the commons. After awhile, some farmers figured out the more cattle they grazed on public land the more they profited. When all farmers figured it out the cattle overgrazed the commons, ruining it.

Market forces don’t regulate use of a commons – market forces ruin it, leading to the need for external regulation by, for example, the government. Regulation isn’t always a bad thing, despite current political cant.

Another, very interesting way negative feedback loops (including pure free-enterprise economics) lead to unstable results comes from feedback delays. Bring up your spreadsheet and model the “logistic” equation (a very simple negative feedback system): v(t+1)=kv(t)*(1-v(t)). Plot it for a hundred values or so, starting with k=1.1 and v=.01. You’ll see a smooth s-shaped curve.

Change k. Between 2 and 3.5 the curve oscillates. From 3.5 to just over 4 it becomes chaotic, jumping around randomly. Somewhere between 4.01 and 4.001 it crashes to extinction. The lesson: Once feedback isn’t immediate, the value of a constant changes not just the scale of a system but its very nature. The results are unpredictable.

(You’ll find other fascinating tidbits like this in the excellent book, A Mathematician Reads the Newspaper by John Allen Paulos.)

So Dr. Metcalfe may be right – the Internet could turn out to be an unstable, chaotic system.

But I doubt it. I have more faith in free enterprise than that.