I took a long weekend, so this was my first chance to post even a re-run.

It’s a bit dated, (it ran in 2002) what with its references to web services, but substitute SOA for web services and it holds up pretty well.

At least, I think it does. But you’ll have to be the judge.

– Bob

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Long before ManagementSpeak graced these pages, Mad Magazine had mastered the art of translation. My favorite:

What they say: It isn’t the money. It’s the principle of the thing.

What they mean: It’s the money.

To run IT, you need both money and principles, of course. Among the core principles for running a typical IT organization:

> Buy when you can, build when you have to.

> Minimize data redundancy.

> Maximize software re-use.

> Pick two.

If you buy when you can and build when you have to, you’ll use applications from more than one software vendor, your databases will be tied to your applications, and you’ll have redundant data. On the other hand, most vendors now write to an n-tier software architecture, which means you can get at the underlying logic, so you achieve software re-use.

Want to minimize data redundancy or maximize software re-use? Build everything yourself, or at least everything you can’t get from your primary ERP vendor. You’ll have full control over your code, too which gives you a fighting chance at re-use. Too bad you can’t afford either the budget or time to choose this option.

Web services promises to eliminate these trade-offs. The use of components instead of full-blown objects means logic is easily accessible while data is still defined separately, and the use of HTTP and XML means vendors can write general-purpose components and make money by renting them out. That means (blare of trumpets!) you’ll easily assemble enterprise applications out of commercially available components from all over the world.

It won’t happen — not because of technological obstacles, but because an enterprise application is more than a collection of general-purpose utility routines.

Software is an opinion about how a business should run. It’s expressed in code rather than English, but its an opinion nonetheless, so when you buy software from multiple vendors you’re buying differing opinions. Interfaces are where they clash. To state the obvious: Technology can’t resolve a difference of opinion.

Imagine you’re a retailer. Web services can solve some irritating problems for you, like managing the sales tax logic in multiple states, so as CTO you decide to adopt the architecture to run your whole business.

That’s when you discover: The different vendors from whom you’re going to rent components disagree on some very fundamental issues, such as how to define “customer.” One considers “customer” to be an individual. For a second it’s a household. A third, oriented toward hardware stores, perhaps, remembers that building contractors buy a lot of stuff and use a definition that includes companies and everyone in the company authorized to make a purchase.

Think you’ll just ship customer data into and out of components from all three vendors with impunity?

Think again.

The grand vision of Web services is that easy integration of independently engineered components will happen by just connecting them together like Tinkertoys. The reality: Integration is hard, even when designed into an application.

It won’t happen by accident, grand visions notwithstanding.

Do trends matter?

You know the answer: It depends. It depends on the reason for the trend. It depends on the hat you’re wearing. And, it depends on what you’re trying to accomplish while wearing that hat.

This being Super Bowl weekend (as I type these words) and as I live a mile from the Super Bowl’s epicenter, a football metaphor is mandatory.

And so, imagine you’re the offensive coordinator for one of the two teams and you notice a trend: Your opponent’s defensive secondary is sluggish on the right side of the field. Should you adjust your offense accordingly?

Well, duh. And you should be alert for signs the trend is ending.

This illustrates the first it-depends: The reasons for the trend matter a lot. If the secondary is sluggish because several players are badly hung over you can ride the trend longer than if there’s no obvious reason for it.

Okay, that’s all the sports metaphor I can stand. Time for the second it-depends — the hat you happen to be wearing.

Imagine your hat says “Investor.” You spot a trend, to all appearances driven by the Greater Fool theory — tulip bulbs, Beanie Babies, Bitcoin if you found last week’s KJR convincing — something is increasing in value for no apparent reason. Being unsure as to whether a greater fool will turn up or not, as a prudent investor you give the trend the same wide berth you’d give a radioactive skunk.

Replace your investor headgear with a cap labeled “CIO” and go back in time a few years to when Bitcoin was newer. Whether or not you personally thought it was going to be around for the long haul, you might have reasonably decided it was important for your company’s financial systems to process it like any other currency.

You also might have decided Bitcoin itself was a losing proposition, but the blockchain technology it relies on might still have offered your business important advantages in securing customer transactions.

Some trends are ephemeral. Others have staying power. Some businesses trade in ephemera. Others don’t.

Which brings up it-depends #3 — what you’re trying to accomplish.

Imagine a CIO who thinks in terms of trends rather than goals.

Our CIO supports a retailer that sells expensive fashions. The entire business is built on spotting and responding to ephemeral trends — preferences for hemlines, necklines, fabrics, and so on that have no real internal logic driving them. Customers just want to look trendier than the people they hang out with. The only thing driving the trend is the trend.

For this sort of retailer, web traffic probably spikes and evaporates as fashion shows and various awards ceremonies come and go. Handling extreme variability in processing demands is something The Cloud is quite good at. The retailer’s CIO, being a trendy sort, long ago put the company’s website on The Cloud. Chalk up a win for trend-following.

Now imagine a CIO who supports a life insurance company. Life insurance companies sell risk products (if you die you win, if you live you lose), investment products (if you live you win, if you die you lose), and hybrid products (if you live or die you win less but something). Purchase transactions and product lifespans last for decades, and part of the appeal of their investment products is that there’s no reason to pay day-to-day attention to them.

The demand for processing power is steady — a situation where Cloud economics just aren’t as interesting.

For the most part, new information technologies are interesting to the extent they provide important business capabilities.

But sadly, most of the analyses aren’t about business capabilities. They’re about surveys of who’s planning to invest in them, and how much.

To illustrate the point, imagine the Froschboscher Group’s annual Shiny Ball Survey reports that 90% of your peers plan to spend heavily on IDA — Intuitive Data Analysis, a technology that mimics the human capability of “trusting my gut.” Does this mean you should too?

That depends on your business, and whether the ability to apply Artificial Stupidity to a problem might prove useful to it.

And it might. If your target market consists of people who trust their guts when making decisions, being able to duplicate their decision-making could prove very useful.

The moral of this week’s story: When planning your company’s technology strategy, trends are effects, not causes. Your job isn’t to follow the trend. It’s to figure out what’s causing it.

If you can identify a potentially valuable business capability, by all means investigate the trend more deeply.

If you can’t, the trend is probably about as important to you as a Beanie Baby.