There’s only one long-term answer to the IT labor shortage, and that’s Tom Swift Jr. If you aren’t familiar with the series, Tom Swift was for science fiction what Nancy Drew and the Hardy Boys were for mysteries. Swift was a genius in his late teens who invented cool stuff, had lots of adventures, and always saved the day.

I grew up on the Tom Swift stories, and dreamed of doing stuff like that too.

If Isaac Asimov is to be believed (and if you can’t believe Ike, who can you believe?) there’s a very strong correlation between reading science fiction as a child and entering a technical profession as an adult. If, as a nation, we want more home-grown scientists, engineers and programmers, the long-term solution is obvious.

In the meantime, you need to hire some IT professionals, you can’t find them, and you can’t wait until the science fiction curriculum is added to the schools, kids grow up in it, and they graduate and enter the workforce. What are you supposed to do right now?

I wrote about the IT labor shortage two years ago, and to show you just how much influence we pundits have, very little has changed between then and now. The fact of the matter? There is an IT labor shortage, but it’s mostly self-inflicted.

Recruitment ads still specify computer science degrees and long lists of specific products. Why? Companies run too lean, hiring only when there’s a specific, urgent need. They can’t afford the time needed to retrain good employees or new hires. Voila! Instant shortage. When nobody is willing to train their employees, it’s inevitable.

For example, some companies are laying off their Y2K staff, who don’t have the “right” skills, while simultaneously recruiting other IT professionals who do — a process that may easily take three months and a $20K+ signing bonus.

Well gee whiz, kids, you are in a pickle, aren’t you? I wonder what would have happened if you’d spent the $20K and three months retraining the poor schmuck who worked his eyeballs out fixing your Y2K problems instead.

Are these companies really that dumb? It’s possible. According to astrophysicists, stupidity may be the “dark matter” that makes up as much as 90% of the universe’s mass. Unlike IT labor, there’s no shortage of the stuff.

But there’s another possibility.

Firing unproductive employees is difficult. It’s emotionally draining, procedurally intense, and legally risky. Sometimes, layoffs are smokescreens that allow companies to terminate employees who aren’t making the grade. They may be incompetent, hard to work with, or they may have just run afoul of company politics, but for one reason or another they’ve been labeled as “undesirable”.

Three decades ago Harold Sackman showed that the best programmers are 20 times more productive than average ones. Imagine what the other side of the bell curve produces. If you factor these folks out … and if you’re hiring, you should … you find another reason there’s a shortage.

One thing is certain. IT managers can’t find the people they’re looking for. So if you’re looking for work in IT, that puts you in the catbird seat. All you gotta do is to be that person. Which also means that if you can’t find work … and there are a lot of programmers and analysts who can’t … it’s time to take a long, hard look in the mirror.

Companies are hiring. If they aren’t hiring you, there’s a reason.

I been readin’ about how the new economy, and how the Internet has changed everything. It’s pretty interesting stuff.

For example, didja know time and space have collapsed? It’s true! Distance doesn’t matter anymore, and everything now happens all at once. I read about it online someplace. I went right out and told my neighbor about it in fact, and everyone at the office agreed it was true, too.

I’ve read dozens … no, hundreds of articles from other Recognized Industry Pundits (RIPs) who have an inside track on the future. These RIPs don’t always agree on things, but they all seem to have several characteristics in common:

1. They all present decades-old science fiction as brilliant new ideas. Wearable computers, technology-driven social isolation, and ubiquitous computing — it’s all old stuff.

2. They don’t worry about consistency. For example, spatial collapse — in other words, the irrelevance of location — is merrily juxtaposed with the need for geographic tailoring (to accommodate sociocultural differences) with no concern that the need for geographic tailoring means location does matter.

3. Their trends are ubiquitous. Our whole society, and often our whole planet is going to transform according to whatever trend is currently under scrutiny. We’re all going to be more isolated. We’re all going to work and shop from home. We’re all going to …

Well, we aren’t all going to. Regardless of the trend, social change, or economic force, this RIP knows only one fact about the future: It’s all going to be a lot messier and more unpredictable than what we currently imagine.

Consider the automobile. When the Model T first made it affordable to the average American, nobody predicted suburbs, commuting, and shopping malls, or their darker consequences: Traffic jams, deterioration of our core cities, and the growth of urban ghettos. Nobody foresaw any of it.

Has the Internet changed everything? Will it?

We talk as if the future happens in straight lines, but it doesn’t. The future is always messier and less predictable than RIPs expect. The lines of causation are as tangled as spaghetti.

The Internet is no exception. What it adds to our already complex economy is yet more choice. Since it takes none of our other choices away, there are only two certainties: Everything the pundits predict will happen somewhere; nothing they predict will happen everywhere. If there’s anything at all we’ve learned about human beings, it’s that they persist in being diverse, no matter how hard you try to line ’em up and move ’em out. No matter how big your data warehouse, they’ll still surprise you.

If the future is going to be messy, how does that affect your current e-business strategy? The answer: Hedge your bets. Target more than one niche. Offer more products. Use more channels, and cross-promote each channel on the other.

Have retail outlets? Add the Web. Are you a pure dot-com? Give your customers more than the Web. Remember when Sharper Image expanded from being a pure catalog operation to retail? Here’s a prediction: To compete with Barnes and Noble, Amazon.com will eventually have to open retail stores, assuming it survives. Why? The future is messy, that’s why.

The future is a Markov process … a random walk. Every step is random; every step starts where the last one stopped.

Which is why anyone who claims they can describe it in a 600 word essay is automatically wrong.