Way back when, before the World Wide Web, the Internet was a small, close community. It was self-policing; as much as any other technique the small-town punishment of disapproving looks took care of most problems.

As the Internet grew, and as more and more money entered the picture, self-policing stopped being effective. Formal controls became important.

Before then, when the population of the American West was small, cattlemen grazed their cattle wherever they found good forage … as did sheep ranchers. As the population grew, so did the need for fences. And sheriffs.

When populations are small and “six degrees of separation” is usually six, and always five degrees more than anyone needs to meet anyone else, formal regulations and controls serve no useful purpose.

In Guns, Germs and Steel (1997), Jared Diamond analyzed the correlation between the size of a society and its governance. Translated into corporate terms, and with some allowances for the differences between societies and businesses, it comes out more or less as the table shows: As companies grow from boutique to large enterprises, governance, administration and conflict resolution all become more formal and less flexible. This need for more formality — for shifting from relationship-driven decision-making to rule-driven decision-making — happens because of how hard it is to establish mutual trust between strangers.OrgSize

In response to the series of columns I wrote earlier this year on this subject, and in particular on PC lockdown and related policies, my friend and client Dave Kaiser raised this question:

You give freedom to your best team members who are taking the Blackberries around and doing what is needed to get the job done. Clock punching Jim has never worked an extra minute in his entire life. He starts complaining because he isn’t granted the same rights. You explain it to Jim and he gives you the argument that this isn’t fair — that you have to treat everyone the same.

Well, no you don’t. Or else, yes you do, if that’s your corporation’s style, which, as companies grow, becomes increasingly likely. Resist the trend. Treating people fairly isn’t the same as treating them the same.

Other than high-risk situations, giving employees the benefit of the doubt is a good idea. If a Blackberry should be useful and an effectiveness enhancer, enhance away.

Giving the benefit of the doubt isn’t the same as ignoring a large pile of evidence. If you’ve worked with Clock-Punching Jim long enough to know he considers a Blackberry to be an entitlement that accompanies employment, and can predict its primary value will be to let Jim ostentatiously ignore team discussions in order to click away … don’t give him one.

When he complains you aren’t being fair, reply that of course you’re being fair. You issue Blackberries to every employee who has demonstrated through performance that it’s a good business investment. He, on the other hand, has demonstrated an uncanny ability to work at exactly the level you define as Just Barely Good Enough. In your judgment, a Blackberry for him would not be a prudent business investment.

That’s the harsh approach, and while, over a barley pop or two, I pretend to enjoy this way of dealing with substandard employees, in fact I don’t recommend it, nor do I practice it myself.

There are reasons people are the way they are. For the most part, their attitudes and behaviors are shaped by the expectations they’ve developed based on their life experiences. If Jim is a clock puncher, there’s a reason for it. This doesn’t mean you can always overcome such things. It does mean sarcasm when discussing employee performance is like cake frosting — tasty and satisfying for a moment or two, but not nutritious and helpful in the long run.

So conduct the more productive version of the conversation instead. You issue Blackberries to every employee who has demonstrated by way of performance that it’s a good business investment. Those are also the employees who receive the larger raises, bonuses, and promotions, and for the exact same reasons.

Then express your confidence in his abilities, explain your concerns about his apparent lack of motivation, and let him know that what happens next is up to him. If he decides to work to his potential you’ll help him take his career as far as it can go. If he has no interest in doing more than he has to, he’ll keep his job, but you won’t invest a lot of time and energy in him.

Or a Blackberry.

Okay, now I’m mad.

According to Gartner, in an August 2007 press release that just caught my attention, “[Research Fellow] Jackie Fenn has been authoring the hype cycle for emerging technologies for 12 years.”

This means she published the first Gartner hype cycle in August, 1996, more or less.

The Gartner hype cycle (technology trigger, peak of inflated expectations, trough of disillusionment, slope of enlightenment, plateau of productivity) looks suspiciously like the Technology Life Cycle — Hype, Disillusionment, Application — I published in InfoWorld three months prior (“Welcome to the Technology Life Cycle,IS Survival Guide, May 6,1996).

Coincidence? Perhaps. Still, I’d appreciate an explanation. If anyone at Gartner is enlightened enough to read KJR and cares to respond, I’ll publish the official account here.

Speaking of Gartner, one of their recent “predictions” (reported in “Most disruptive technologies,” by Clint Boulton, eWeek, undated), is that by 2026 the world will move beyond “mere semantic hypertext,” whatever that means, to a “true semantic environment.”

Eighteen years ago the NCSA had not yet developed Mosaic, the world’s first Web browser. Since I don’t recall Gartner predicting Web 2.0’s 2008 emergence back in 1990, and do recall it predicting the eventual triumph of OS/2 … well, you see the problem.

Not that this is an unsafe forecast, other than the timetable. If Moore’s law still has any meaning, by 2026 computers will be roughly 4,000 times more powerful than they are today. They’d better have mastered semantics — the difference between computers not understanding us and computers misunderstanding us. Think speech-to-text software on a very off day, only with much more severe consequences. Very disruptive.

The world will be as different from today in 2026 as today is from 1990. Semantic processing might as well get some of the credit.

Except that by then, WIFI Into the Frontal Lobes (WIFL) technology will probably have left the labs, making semantic processing irrelevant.

As long as I’m in the mood to sneer, here’s a quick critique of a few of Gartner’s other disruptive technologies:

Augmented reality, also User interface: Virtual reality with more immersive controls. Biggest immediate benefit — virtual monitors via wearable headsets mean you can use a keyboard in an airplane seat without risking a crushed LCD should the passenger in front of you suddenly recline.

Biggest disruptive impact — new, potentially deadly forms of malware. Imagine a convincing but false VR animation, shown to someone wearing a fully immersive interface, perhaps displaying an empty intersection and a green light to a pedestrian who faces heavy traffic and a Don’t Walk sign in actual reality.

Nicer disruptive impact — you point your eyeglasses-mounted camera at the person approaching you at a conference. A voice in your ear says, “It’s Jill Schwartz, the wife of John Schwartz, the CFO of XYZ Corp (your biggest client). The last time you spoke, her Chihuahua was sick.”

Context-aware computing: This might mean something but I’m not entirely sure. I think it means Microsoft Bob.

Disruptive impact — an order-of-magnitude increase in irritation as computers try to be increasingly helpful when you really don’t want them to be.

What it could be: If I type, “Bruises are black, blue and gray,” and decide to reorder the list, when I move “gray” before “blue” my word processor would automatically relocate the “and” and various commas for me.

Enterprise social software: This isn’t entirely new — telephones and e-mail are early examples.

Enterprise social software won’t be disruptive, for a simple reason. Companies that already recognize the importance of free-form communication among employees will still value it — just do it better. Companies that don’t still won’t, and won’t use it.

Multicore and hybrid servers: Gartner’s #1 disruptive technology — honest! Here’s the quote: “Programmers will have to learn parallel coding, or how to write applications for the unpredictability of machines leveraging multiple cores. In addition, more cores running more applications mean more opportunities for failure, so management specialists will have to learn how to rebuild the systems that break. Multicore will also impact the way operating systems get built.”

Yes, multicore will have an impact on the way operating systems get built. Also compilers. The impact will be to insulate programmers from having to learn parallel coding and all the rest of it.

We’ve been here before and we’ve seen the results. With the fifth repetition, prediction becomes easy.

As someone once said, those who fail to learn the lessons of history are doomed to repeat the seventh grade.